Fire in the Lake Non-player examples

Aug 31 2015

The Tet Offensive

As per the playbook, the starting point is Laser Guided Bombs (20) in play, with Brinks Hotel (97) on deck. The VC Tet Offensive (124) trumps Laser Guided Bombs. The conditions for Tet as defined on the event card are met, there are more than 20 VC in the South, and 2 or more Coup! cards in play.

The Event card has the VC indicator in a halo. Reading the associated text located on the Random Spaces Foldout, the Event is associated with General Uprising, and governs placement of VC into spaces.
Tet Offensive trumps all other factions offensives.
If I understand this correctly, with all factions eligible, the NVA are next up on the Tet card, hence get Operation and Activity following the Tet event. Check this.

The Tet Offensive event text reads:

General uprising: Free Terror with 1 Underground VC per space. Place 6 VC pieces in any cities. VC+NVA Guerrillas free Attack where enemies (remove VC first).

Let's break this down into an enumerated list:

Free Terror for spaces with existing underground guerrillas.
Place 6 VC in any Cities.
Free Attacks where any VC+NVA guerrillas, with VC guerrillas removed first on Attack results.

1. Free Terror

Reading through Section 3.3.4 of the rules, we have the following for Terror operations:

Requires at least 1 Underground VC Guerrilla, or 1 NVA Troop cube.
Activate the Underground Guerrilla for the VC, and NVA if lacking Troop cube.
Province or City without a Terror marker gets a Terror marker.
LoC without Sabotage marker gets a Sabotage marker.
If VC, shift Support one level towards Active Opposition.
If NVA, shift Support one level towards Neutral.

Spaces with Underground VC are:

Kien Giang: No change to Active Opposition.
Ba Xuyen: Passive Oppose to Active Oppose, Oppose+Bases to 24.
Kien-Hoa: Passive Oppose to Active Oppose, Oppose+Bases to 26.
Kien Phong: Passive Oppose to Active Oppose, Oppose+Bases to 28.
Tay Ninh: No change to Active Opposition.
Saigon: Active Support to Passive Support, Support+Available to 31.
Binh Tuy: Neutral to Passive Oppose, Oppose+Bases to 29.
Phuoc Loung: No population here, so not sure why it matters, but moves from Neutral to Passive Opposition.
Khanh Hoa: Active to Passive Support, Support+Available to 30.
Quang Duc: Neutral to Passive Opposition, Oppose+Bases to 30.
Pleiku: Active to Passive Support, Support+Available to 29.
Phu Bon: Passive Support to Neutral, Support+Available to 28.
Binh Dinh, Active to Passive Support, Support+Available to 26.
Quang Nam: No change to Active Opposition.

That's a lot, and will be costly for US/ARVN to remove Terror from these spaces.

2. Place 6 VC Guerillas

First question: are these placed Underground or Activated?

I'm assuming these are placed in Underground mode.

The text on the Random Spaces Foldout reads:

For General uprising, place guerrillas then bases in Siagon, Hue & 4 random (possibly same) Cities.

Question: what governs placing VC Bases instead of Underground guerrillas?

Die rolls red-yellow-blue:

1-2-3: Da Nang.
5-3-1: Southern Laos -> Hue.
3-2-3: Binh Tuy -> Qui Nhon.
6-6-4: Hue.

That's pretty straightforward.

By my count, with 23 VC on the map at the start, placing 6 more makes 29 leaving 1 VC Available.

3. Free Attacks

Tet requires mandatory attack any spaces where there are VC and enemy pieces (US or ARVN). Where NVA guerrillas are colocated, they are also used in the attack.

The following spaces have VC guerrillas and enemy units:

Kien Giang: 1 VC, 3 ARVN.
Ba Xuyen: 1 VC, 1 Police.
Kien Hoa: 1 VC, 1 Police.
Kien Phong: 1 VC, 1 Police.
Tay Ninh: 3 VC, 2 NVA, 3 US, 3 ARVN.
Binh Tuy: 2 VC, 2 US, 1 Police, 3 ARVN.
Khanh Hoa: 2 VC, 1 Police, 3 US.
Pleiku: 2 VC, 1 Police, 3 US.
Phu Bon: 2 VC, 2 Police, 2 ARVN, 3 US.
Qui Nhon: 1 VC, 2 Police, 1 US.
Binh Dinh: 2 VC, 1 Police, 3 US.
Da Nang: 1 VC, 2 Police, 1 US.
Hue: 3 VC, 2 Police, 1 US.

From the example in the playbook, Hue, Tay Ninh and Saigon have successful attacks:

Hue: From Rule 8.1.2, because no Ranger or SF, target US first, then alternate evenly among remaining pieces starting with whichever is most in the space. In Hue, the US piece is removed for sure, then one of the police, and only 1 of the VC due to the US Troop removed. Note: VC are not removed for any other reason than US Troop or Base in an Attack. COIN control is lost! COIN+Patron to 42.
Tay Ninh: Take 1 US and ARVN Ranger for 1 VC. COIN control is lost here as well. (The example graphic on page 17 of the Playbook is wrong, it show both the Ranger and COIN control in Tay Ninh after Tet.) COIN+Patron to 40.
Saigon: Take 1 US and 1 Ranger for 1 VC. Note that page 17 illustration doesn't agree with the text or Rule 8.1.2. There is still a Ranger shown in Saigon instead of being moved to Available. Also, there is 1 too many Police units. The setup calls for 3, 4 are shown. (Or, there is a typo in the setup, Check the errata here.)

Results

COIN control lost in Tay Ninh and Hue.
Oppose+Bases gained 7 from 23 to 30.
COIN+Patron fell 4 from 44 to 40 (illustration on page 17 is wrong).
Support+Avail fell 11 from 37 to 26.
Total wash for the NVA.

Lessons from Tet

The Attack procedure is interesting because it highlights the preferences for removing pieces. Without the Bots, the attacking faction is free to designate enemy targets at will, with the limitation that US and ARVN bases must be removed last.

The Bot, however, is going to take the Ranger and Irregular units first, then target Troops and Police.

I think it would hard for VC to win without Tet. From the position they're in now, they need only gain 7 points to win, and they have enough resources to make it difficult for any other faction to reduce their score very much, at least in the short term.

Let's continue on with the NVA non-player faction to see what the Bot comes up with next. This makes sense to me as I understand Fire in the Play as the activity of two factions for every card drawn from the deck. Tet's next faction is NVA, which is eligible.

NVA Operation + Special Activity

Now, on to the Non-Player NVA Bot chart.

Attack

Examining the first decision (top left diamond on the flowchart), Troop attack is the highest priority. Examining the board, there are NVA guerrillas in Quang Tri and in Tay Ninh, but no NVA Troops sharing any space with enemies. The question asks whether an attack by these guerrillas will have any effect.

Add COIN or remove Base: Both Quang Tri and Tay Ninh have US bases and are coin control, but there aren't enough NVA in either space to remove either COIN or Base. See last item in this list.
Last COIN: I don't know what this means.
Remove 4+ enemies from space: This is clearly "no" in both Quang Tri where 3 NVA guerrillas could only remove 1 US, and in Tay Ninh where 2 NVA guerrillas could only remove 1 US.

Terror

This is a no-go as only Quang Tri and Tay Ninh have the requisite guerillas, but Tay Ninh is already in Active Opposition, and adding Terror to Quang Tri only affects 2 population.

Rally/March

There are three conditions in governing Rally or March for the NVA Bot:

Are there more than 20 Troops in the NVA Available box? (yes)
Are there more than 10 guerrillas in the NVA Available box? (no)
Is the Trail less than 2? (no)

Answering "yes" to any of the above means Rally/Infiltrate, otherwise March.

Rally

Since there are more than 20 Troops in NVA Available, the NVA will Rally. The condition is:

In up to 3 non-Support spaces (1 space if unshaded "AAA" and Trail will be improved):

Followed by these priorities:

Place Bases at 4+ NVA/VC. There are only two spaces with 4+ NVA/VC, which are North Vietnam and Central Laos. However, both have only 1 guerrilla in each, hence, cannot place a Base. There are already bases in each in any case.
Then place Guerrillas at any COIN control in Laos or Cambodia: None.
Next place Guerrillas at NVA Bases with < 2 NVA Guerrillas, then at any NVA Bases, finally randomly. Bases with one NVA guerrilla are in North Vietnam and Central Laos, so NVA places one guerrilla in each for 2 resources.

Improve Trail if <3 and 3+ NVA Resources, always if 9+ NVA Resources.

Further questions

Question 1: If a space has both NVA Underground Guerrilla and NVA Troop cube, must the Underground Guerrilla be activated? I read that to be yes, as the rules state "if any [Underground Guerrilla] there" for the Terror procedure.

Question 2: for the Attacks, does there have to be a VC Guerilla in the space along with an NVA Guerrilla?

Question 3: Rule 8.1.2 instructs to remove in reverse order of placement. Bases are emplaced first when possible, but the example doesn't show the US base in Saigon being removed. This part isn't quite clear.

Question 4: Does a VC Base count for Attack value? For example, suppose 2 VC guerrillas and 1 VC Base are in a province and execute Attack. Do the VC count 2 or 3 for the purposes of the die roll?

Question 5: NVA Bot flowchart says "Troop" in the control of flow diamond, but shows NVA Troops, Guerrillas in the action box to the right. NVA player aid indicates guerrillas may attack as well. Is this diaomond misworded?

Question 6: Suppose for an NVA Rally there is already a single base which is NVA in the space, and the space is eligible for a base given the constraints of 4+ NVA/VC with 2 NVA guerrillas. Should the base be emplaced in that space? As a player, I wouldn't do it.

What to play next?

Deciding what to play next is always a tough call when faced with a closet full of games, all of which were purchased with intent to play. Here's one I'm dealing with the decision.

Something New: this means both something new to me and a game which has been published recently, within the last two or three years.
Something Classic: I've acquired a number of games properly considered "classic" which haven't yet been played. The current example would be PanzerGruppe Guderian.
Something Again: mastery requires constant practice, which means playing games many, many times to allow nuance to appear.
Something Vietnam: as I'm on a Vietnam binge. I don't have all the Vietnam games ever published, but I can say that I have a lot of them, and probably more than most people.
Something Obscure: as it's fun to poke around in the dustier corners of game design.
Something Different: break away from the same old publishers and try a game from one of the new kids on the block. Or, conversely, dip into legacy with a classic tried and true.
Something Light: once in a while it's nice to actually finish a game all the way through in one sitting, in an hour or two.
Something Heavy: if possible, it's nice to set up something big and complicated which can be left out for days or weeks or even months, for a leisurely stroll through a very large or long game.

There are surely many more ways to choose, but the above method keeps me busy enough, helps me get both breadth and depth into my play, and provides me with a sense of progress.

The odd man out

When there is an odd man out:

Have a solo game ready to play.
Keep score or advise on a game in progress.
Referee a game in progress.